Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	8h 30m	98%	84%
American Details →	DCA 07:49 → PHX 09:39AA 2006	1h 30m Phoenix	PHX 11:09 → SJC 13:15AA 3940 · flown by Envoy	8h 26m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:00 → MSP 13:41DL 2958	1h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 15:30 → SJC 17:34DL 2087	8h 34m	97%	83%
United Details →	DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793	1h 46m Chicago	ORD 09:32 → SJC 12:08UA 307	8h 38m	99%	80%
American Details →	DCA 05:00 → DFW 07:22AA 2007	1h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:16 → SJC 11:04AA 2046	9h 04m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	DCA 16:45 → LAX 19:19DL 392	1h 25m Los Angeles	LAX 20:44 → SJC 22:05DL 1420	8h 20m	90%	75%
American Details →	DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839	2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:02 → SJC 13:49AA 2834	9h 50m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 19:50 → SJC 21:41DL 933	8h 41m	93%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DCA 17:59 → ORD 19:08UA 2148	50m Chicago	ORD 19:58 → SJC 22:43UA 481	7h 44m	71%	51%
Alaska Details →	DCA 17:00 → SEA 19:59AS 3	47m Seattle	SEA 20:46 → SJC 22:52AS 403	8h 52m	67%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON