Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 05:54, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 820 Delta Flight history →	DCA 17:45	SLC 20:41	14%	4%	0.6%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493	3h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651	8h 34m	99%	91%
United Details →	DCA 16:13 → DEN 18:25UA 746	2h 40m Denver	DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest	8h 31m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 05:54 → DTW 07:26DL 2869	59m Detroit	DTW 08:25 → SLC 10:21DL 698	6h 27m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	DCA 15:07 → MSP 16:56DL 2983	1h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → SLC 20:06DL 2607	6h 59m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	DCA 07:00 → BOS 08:39DL 5698 · flown by Republic	2h 36m Boston	BOS 11:15 → SLC 14:23DL 464	9h 23m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	8h 10m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:02 → JFK 07:25DL 5802 · flown by Republic	3h 49m New York	JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917	10h 19m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:23 → DTW 14:00DL 2476	3h 40m Detroit	DTW 17:40 → SLC 19:34DL 765	9h 11m	98%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	DCA 08:00 → SEA 10:58AS 1	53m Seattle	SEA 11:51 → SLC 15:04AS 733	9h 04m	73%	47%
Alaska Details →	DCA 17:00 → SEA 19:59AS 3	47m Seattle	SEA 20:46 → SLC 23:42AS 1454	8h 42m	67%	44%
American Details →	DCA 17:03 → ORD 18:24AA 1189	54m Chicago	ORD 19:18 → SLC 22:08AA 2545	7h 05m	69%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON