tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via DFW, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:00 → DFW 07:22AA 2007 1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:36 → SNA 09:53AA 2114 7h 53m 95% 78%
UnitedDetails → DCA 07:55 → SFO 10:50UA 369 1h 35m San Francisco SFO 12:25 → SNA 14:09UA 2441 9h 14m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697 1h 46m Houston IAH 12:27 → SNA 13:56UA 1533 8h 36m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 31m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 54m Chicago ORD 08:40 → SNA 11:21UA 1304 7h 51m 90% 76%
DeltaDetails → DCA 15:07 → MSP 16:56DL 2983 1h 32m Minneapolis MSP 18:28 → SNA 20:20DL 2107 8h 13m 95% 76%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839 3h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:26 → SNA 13:42AA 2465 9h 43m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826 9h 25m 96% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON