tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 2584 at 08:48, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2584 American Flight history → DCA 08:48 SRQ 11:44 19% 5% 1.5% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SRQ 11:48DL 3104 5h 48m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 926 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 15:01 → SRQ 16:37DL 3115 6h 21m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 3h 24m Chicago ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287 8h 42m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 20:51 → SRQ 22:27DL 2997 6h 27m 96% 75%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:12 → CLT 07:48AA 1521 2h 37m Charlotte CLT 10:25 → SRQ 12:24AA 1452 6h 12m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → DCA 14:58 → EWR 16:34UA 4560 · flown by GoJet 3h 35m Newark EWR 20:09 → SRQ 23:15UA 1324 8h 17m 94% 64%
AmericanDetails → DCA 15:15 → CLT 16:48AA 2040 2h 42m Charlotte CLT 19:30 → SRQ 21:23AA 2604 6h 08m 95% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON