Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1150 at 11:42 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 1150 DCA 11:42 → TPA 14:15 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 544 DCA 19:00 → TPA 21:25 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1150 Southwest	DCA 11:42	TPA 14:15	15%	3%	1.1%	no record
AA 1972 American	DCA 08:26	TPA 11:15	15%	3%	1.7%	no record
AA 3126 American	DCA 10:21	TPA 13:03	16%	4%	1.7%	no record
AA 1944 American Flight history →	DCA 15:52	TPA 18:29	21%	6%	1.7%	58%
AA 544 American Flight history →	DCA 19:00	TPA 21:25	25%	8%	1.5%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON