tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OH 5497 at 13:05, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OH 5497 PSA DCA 13:05 TUL 15:18 14% 5% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 12:04DL 2620 7h 04m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → DCA 16:13 → DEN 18:25UA 746 2h 30m Denver DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest 8h 34m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 926 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 15:43 → TUL 16:44DL 2837 7h 28m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → DCA 08:30 → CLT 10:13AA 1518 2h 19m Charlotte CLT 12:32 → TUL 14:12AA 2657 6h 42m 95% 78%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 59m Chicago ORD 08:45 → TUL 11:03UA 5795 · flown by SkyWest 5h 33m 93% 76%
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:00 → DFW 07:22AA 2007 1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:42 → TUL 10:01AA 2348 6h 01m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → TUL 22:18DL 2043 7h 18m 97% 74%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839 1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:43 → TUL 12:02AA 2352 6h 03m 98% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DCA 15:13 → DFW 17:44AA 1624 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:30 → TUL 19:48AA 531 5h 35m 72% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON