Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, YX 4400 at 10:45, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


YX 4400 Republic	DCA 10:45	TVC 13:02	8%	2%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	2h 54m Minneapolis	MSP 10:29 → TVC 13:04DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	7h 04m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15DL 1454	2h 15m Detroit	DTW 21:30 → TVC 22:41DL 2424	5h 12m	97%	75%
American Details →	DCA 07:45 → ORD 09:00AA 2633	3h 12m Chicago	ORD 12:12 → TVC 14:32AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest	6h 47m	100%	73%
United Details →	DCA 17:10 → ORD 18:19UA 654	3h 04m Chicago	ORD 21:23 → TVC 23:29UA 2071	6h 19m	95%	58%
United Details →	DCA 17:59 → ORD 19:08UA 2148	1h 06m Chicago	ORD 20:14 → TVC 22:25UA 677	4h 26m	78%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON