tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OH 5224 PSA DCA 15:54 TYS 17:48 11% 6% 0.9% no record
OH 5109 PSA DCA 09:46 TYS 11:38 13% 4% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 05:54 → DTW 07:26DL 2869 1h 12m Detroit DTW 08:38 → TYS 10:29DL 5347 · flown by Endeavor 4h 35m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:23 → DTW 14:00DL 2476 3h 58m Detroit DTW 17:58 → TYS 19:38DL 5138 · flown by Endeavor 7h 15m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 13:44 → TYS 14:46DL 1148 6h 46m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 09:48 → TYS 10:49DL 1817 4h 49m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 926 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 15:47 → TYS 16:53DL 2571 6h 37m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 21:27 → TYS 22:29DL 1437 6h 29m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839 1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:16 → TYS 14:37AA 2544 7h 38m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → DCA 13:47 → DFW 16:14AA 1177 1h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:38 → TYS 21:04AA 5346 · flown by PSA 7h 17m 90% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON