Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, MQ 4110 at 10:36, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 4110 Envoy	DCA 10:36	VPS 12:01	14%	3%	1.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	3h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 10:35 → VPS 13:13DL 2462	8h 13m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048	5h 29m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:59 → ATL 10:57DL 455	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → VPS 14:11DL 2832	6h 12m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 926	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 15:49 → VPS 16:05DL 2170	6h 49m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 22:50 → VPS 23:03DL 3097	5h 33m	93%	76%
American Details →	DCA 05:00 → DFW 07:22AA 2007	2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:30 → VPS 11:28AA 2460	7h 28m	98%	71%
American Details →	DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839	3h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:46 → VPS 14:43AA 2501	8h 44m	99%	66%
American Details →	DCA 11:59 → DFW 14:23AA 1623	2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:37 → VPS 18:38AA 2673	7h 39m	98%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON