Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 3452 at 20:02, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3452 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 20:02	XNA 21:50	13%	5%	2.1%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839	3h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:42 → XNA 14:03AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	8h 04m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 926	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 15:43 → XNA 16:51DL 5128 · flown by Endeavor	7h 35m	100%	85%
American Details →	DCA 07:59 → DFW 10:31AA 1978	3h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:16 → XNA 15:37AA 3840 · flown by Envoy	8h 38m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:23 → DTW 14:00DL 2476	1h 51m Detroit	DTW 15:51 → XNA 17:16DL 4889 · flown by Endeavor	5h 53m	96%	83%
American Details →	DCA 06:12 → CLT 07:48AA 1521	1h 04m Charlotte	CLT 08:52 → XNA 10:18AA 5327 · flown by PSA	5h 06m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:17DL 380	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 17:19 → XNA 18:14DL 2771	6h 47m	98%	82%
American Details →	DCA 07:45 → ORD 09:00AA 2633	2h 54m Chicago	ORD 11:54 → XNA 13:42AA 4028 · flown by Envoy	6h 57m	100%	81%
United Details →	DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450	1h 21m Houston	IAH 09:34 → XNA 11:21UA 4278 · flown by CommuteAir	6h 21m	98%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON