Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OO 4743 at 08:21 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–26%.

Safest bet that day OO 4743 DEN 08:21 → ABQ 10:01 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 484 DEN 19:15 → ABQ 20:39 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4743 SkyWest	DEN 08:21	ABQ 10:01	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 719 Southwest	DEN 10:57	ABQ 12:25	9%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 5880 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 21:02	ABQ 22:30	9%	5%	0.6%	84%
OO 4728 SkyWest	DEN 15:51	ABQ 17:35	13%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 1594 United	DEN 13:30	ABQ 14:57	15%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 476 United	DEN 11:18	ABQ 12:43	16%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 189 Southwest	DEN 16:12	ABQ 17:40	17%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 1537 Southwest	DEN 19:34	ABQ 20:57	25%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 484 United Flight history →	DEN 19:15	ABQ 20:39	26%	7%	0.5%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON