Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 501 at 12:13, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 501 SkyWest	DEN 12:13	ACV 14:03	22%	9%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Arcata/Eureka on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Arcata/Eureka is 1 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DEN 11:20 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	3h 33m San Francisco	SFO 16:37 → ACV 17:50UA 419	7h 30m	99%	67%
United Details →	DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506	2h 45m San Francisco	SFO 14:10 → ACV 15:44UA 4715 · flown by SkyWest	7h 01m	99%	67%
United Details →	DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367	3h 24m San Francisco	SFO 10:17 → ACV 11:44UA 4708 · flown by SkyWest	7h 29m	99%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON