Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 5233 at 14:29, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5233 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 14:29	AMA 17:00	21%	6%	1.2%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Amarillo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Amarillo is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DEN 05:25 → DAL 08:24WN 1442	1h 04m Dallas	DAL 09:28 → AMA 10:56WN 188	4h 31m	97%	90%
United Details →	DEN 05:00 → IAH 08:32UA 320	3h 53m Houston	IAH 12:25 → AMA 14:21UA 4817 · flown by CommuteAir	8h 21m	100%	82%
United Details →	DEN 13:30 → IAH 17:04UA 1829	3h 30m Houston	IAH 20:34 → AMA 22:30UA 4839 · flown by CommuteAir	8h 00m	98%	82%
American Details →	DEN 06:26 → DFW 09:30AA 3285	3h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:19 → AMA 14:37AA 3383 · flown by Envoy	7h 11m	99%	80%
American Details →	DEN 09:04 → DFW 12:07AA 1523	2h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:32 → AMA 15:50AA 3613 · flown by Envoy	5h 46m	94%	73%
American Details →	DEN 10:25 → DFW 13:26AA 1756	3h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:23 → AMA 18:42AA 3789 · flown by Envoy	7h 17m	96%	70%
American Details →	DEN 12:39 → DFW 15:46AA 2359	3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:57 → AMA 20:15AA 3990 · flown by Envoy	6h 36m	96%	67%
American Details →	DEN 15:25 → DFW 18:35AA 420	1h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:07 → AMA 21:28AA 3607 · flown by Envoy	5h 03m	81%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DEN 16:56 → DFW 19:58AA 1832	1h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:19 → AMA 22:40AA 2265	4h 44m	74%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON