tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 08:40, is the safest bet: 52% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 280 United Flight history → DEN 19:06 ANC 22:50 21% 5% 0.6% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 2 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DEN 08:42 → MSP 11:42DL 2877 2h 36m Minneapolis MSP 14:18 → ANC 16:49DL 411 10h 07m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → DEN 11:10 → MSP 14:10DL 2849 4h 00m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377 11h 50m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → DEN 07:15 → ATL 12:11DL 431 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → ANC 18:48DL 416 13h 33m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → DEN 06:30 → SEA 08:26DL 1731 2h 09m Seattle SEA 10:35 → ANC 13:17DL 922 8h 47m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → DEN 13:03 → SEA 15:05DL 1358 2h 30m Seattle SEA 17:35 → ANC 20:23DL 2367 9h 20m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329 3h 04m Chicago ORD 16:19 → ANC 19:53UA 461 12h 18m 97% 71%
AlaskaDetails → DEN 11:57 → SEA 13:44AS 682 3h 10m Seattle SEA 16:54 → ANC 19:47AS 1683 9h 50m 98% 70%
AmericanDetails → DEN 10:46 → ORD 14:21AA 2559 2h 34m Chicago ORD 16:55 → ANC 20:59AA 375 12h 13m 100% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DEN 12:29 → ORD 16:04AA 2363 51m Chicago ORD 16:55 → ANC 20:59AA 375 10h 30m 71% 48%
AlaskaDetails → DEN 08:40 → SEA 10:42AS 317 57m Seattle SEA 11:39 → ANC 14:27AS 83 7h 47m 64% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON