Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 11–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5444 DEN 07:45 → ASE 08:46 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 5782 DEN 09:44 → ASE 10:53 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5444 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	ASE 08:46	11%	4%	2.2%	86%
UA 5781 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:49	ASE 21:45	13%	5%	2.1%	78%
UA 5779 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:10	ASE 20:11	15%	6%	2.0%	68%
UA 5775 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:25	ASE 18:29	16%	7%	2.4%	72%
UA 5771 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:40	ASE 14:44	16%	8%	2.1%	73%
UA 5697 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 16:22	ASE 17:26	17%	7%	2.7%	63%
UA 5769 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 11:18	ASE 12:26	19%	8%	2.1%	74%
UA 5782 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:44	ASE 10:53	21%	6%	1.8%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON