Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 341 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 341 DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 2450 DEN 17:12 → ATL 22:03 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 341 Delta Flight history →	DEN 05:45	ATL 10:44	5%	2%	0.5%	94%
DL 431 Delta Flight history →	DEN 07:15	ATL 12:11	9%	3%	0.5%	93%
DL 302 Delta Flight history →	DEN 00:40	ATL 05:42	11%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 706 Delta Flight history →	DEN 14:10	ATL 19:16	17%	7%	1.6%	83%
DL 957 Delta Flight history →	DEN 15:10	ATL 20:22	17%	7%	1.3%	85%
DL 346 Delta Flight history →	DEN 11:45	ATL 16:49	18%	4%	0.6%	80%
UA 2806 United	DEN 10:17	ATL 15:23	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 840 Delta Flight history →	DEN 16:35	ATL 21:54	19%	8%	1.0%	82%
F9 3600 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 09:58	ATL 15:08	21%	5%	0.7%	75%
UA 248 United	DEN 15:54	ATL 20:59	23%	7%	0.9%	no record
UA 1671 United Flight history →	DEN 13:40	ATL 18:44	24%	7%	1.5%	79%
WN 4978 Southwest	DEN 11:02	ATL 16:03	24%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 1450 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 19:19	ATL 00:27	26%	10%	0.7%	65%
WN 2450 Southwest	DEN 17:12	ATL 22:03	39%	8%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON