Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1536 at 06:42 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1536 DEN 06:42 → AUS 09:54 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1997 DEN 18:27 → AUS 21:44 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1536 Southwest	DEN 06:42	AUS 09:54	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1026 United Flight history →	DEN 09:42	AUS 13:02	12%	3%	0.6%	82%
WN 1489 Southwest	DEN 11:02	AUS 14:19	16%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2270 United Flight history →	DEN 13:44	AUS 16:58	16%	6%	0.6%	83%
DL 3876 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 12:34	AUS 15:59	17%	7%	0.6%	85%
WN 1539 Southwest	DEN 14:09	AUS 17:19	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1943 United Flight history →	DEN 20:27	AUS 23:44	20%	7%	0.7%	67%
UA 1942 United Flight history →	DEN 18:39	AUS 21:57	20%	8%	0.6%	75%
F9 1816 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:11	AUS 19:27	22%	7%	0.7%	80%
WN 1997 Southwest	DEN 18:27	AUS 21:44	22%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON