Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 1992 at 09:40, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1992 United	DEN 09:40	AVL 14:39	12%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Asheville is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 12:25 → AVL 13:21DL 1182	5h 36m	97%	83%
American Details →	DEN 06:41 → CLT 12:04AA 573	1h 58m Charlotte	CLT 14:02 → AVL 15:08AA 5588 · flown by PSA	6h 27m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	DEN 11:45 → ATL 16:49DL 346	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 19:46 → AVL 20:52DL 2037	7h 07m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	DEN 14:10 → ATL 19:16DL 706	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 21:30 → AVL 22:32DL 3116	6h 22m	96%	74%
American Details →	DEN 11:00 → CLT 16:18AA 3299	3h 25m Charlotte	CLT 19:43 → AVL 20:43AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont	7h 43m	100%	74%
American Details →	DEN 06:26 → DFW 09:30AA 3285	3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:41 → AVL 16:07AA 569	7h 41m	99%	61%
American Details →	DEN 15:25 → DFW 18:35AA 420	1h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:19 → AVL 23:28AA 3267	6h 03m	84%	43%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DEN 13:21 → CLT 18:40AA 1662	1h 03m Charlotte	CLT 19:43 → AVL 20:43AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont	5h 22m	68%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON