Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1543 at 05:43 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 1543 DEN 05:43 → BNA 09:24 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2922 DEN 19:34 → BNA 23:07 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1543 Southwest	DEN 05:43	BNA 09:24	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1544 Southwest	DEN 08:22	BNA 11:58	9%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 355 United Flight history →	DEN 09:42	BNA 13:25	12%	3%	0.6%	83%
WN 1545 Southwest	DEN 10:57	BNA 14:33	16%	2%	0.6%	no record
F9 1402 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:35	BNA 14:19	19%	5%	0.8%	81%
WN 1547 Southwest	DEN 15:32	BNA 19:08	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1300 United Flight history →	DEN 17:30	BNA 21:13	22%	9%	0.6%	74%
WN 2922 Southwest	DEN 19:34	BNA 23:07	25%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON