Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 552 at 08:52 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 552 DEN 08:52 → BOI 10:56 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4421 DEN 19:29 → BOI 21:28 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 552 Southwest	DEN 08:52	BOI 10:56	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 255 United	DEN 07:32	BOI 09:28	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 5923 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:25	BOI 22:37	13%	5%	0.6%	71%
UA 2255 United Flight history →	DEN 11:35	BOI 13:34	15%	4%	0.5%	82%
WN 1551 Southwest	DEN 14:17	BOI 16:26	18%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2602 United Flight history →	DEN 15:55	BOI 17:56	21%	6%	0.6%	67%
UA 2014 United Flight history →	DEN 19:28	BOI 21:29	23%	7%	0.6%	73%
WN 4421 Southwest	DEN 19:29	BOI 21:28	28%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON