Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2656 at 00:12 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 2656 DEN 00:12 → BOS 06:05 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 394 DEN 13:00 → BOS 18:57 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2656 United Flight history →	DEN 00:12	BOS 06:05	7%	2%	0.5%	92%
UA 558 United Flight history →	DEN 07:45	BOS 13:49	9%	3%	0.5%	91%
UA 1232 United Flight history →	DEN 09:40	BOS 15:44	15%	5%	0.5%	86%
UA 597 United Flight history →	DEN 14:06	BOS 20:10	20%	9%	0.5%	71%
DL 499 Delta Flight history →	DEN 11:33	BOS 17:35	23%	6%	0.5%	75%
UA 1356 United Flight history →	DEN 17:40	BOS 23:44	23%	8%	0.5%	73%
WN 792 Southwest	DEN 11:07	BOS 17:09	26%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 1555 Southwest	DEN 17:22	BOS 23:24	32%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 4440 Southwest	DEN 17:23	BOS 23:20	33%	7%	0.5%	no record
B6 394 JetBlue Flight history →	DEN 13:00	BOS 18:57	39%	14%	0.7%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00DL 1129	1h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → BOS 13:51DL 2655	5h 51m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	DEN 16:08 → MSP 19:15DL 2271	55m Minneapolis	MSP 20:10 → BOS 23:56DL 2614	5h 48m	86%	72%
United Details →	DEN 08:38 → ORD 12:00UA 2430	1h 14m Chicago	ORD 13:14 → BOS 16:31UA 2401	5h 53m	92%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON