Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 23–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 544 Southwest	DEN 11:07	BUF 16:26	23%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 731 United	DEN 17:35	BUF 22:47	27%	8%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00DL 1129	3h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → BUF 15:48DL 1749	7h 48m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DEN 00:40 → ATL 05:42DL 302	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384	8h 31m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 14:10 → BUF 16:13DL 2266	8h 28m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	DEN 15:00 → DTW 19:52DL 1648	1h 43m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → BUF 22:45DL 978	5h 45m	93%	77%
United Details →	DEN 07:44 → ORD 11:21UA 1928	2h 53m Chicago	ORD 14:14 → BUF 16:47UA 580	7h 03m	100%	75%
American Details →	DEN 06:41 → CLT 12:04AA 573	1h 54m Charlotte	CLT 13:58 → BUF 15:49AA 2442	7h 08m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	DEN 12:58 → LGA 18:45DL 751	1h 02m New York	LGA 19:47 → BUF 21:11DL 5792 · flown by Republic	6h 13m	86%	74%
Delta Details →	DEN 06:35 → JFK 12:27DL 336	1h 02m New York	JFK 13:29 → BUF 15:09DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor	6h 34m	94%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON