Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1557 at 08:47 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 1557 DEN 08:47 → BUR 10:26 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4390 DEN 19:29 → BUR 21:02 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1557 Southwest	DEN 08:47	BUR 10:26	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 2154 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	BUR 12:48	16%	5%	0.6%	85%
WN 1267 Southwest	DEN 14:57	BUR 16:31	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 8140 United	DEN 19:10	BUR 20:40	22%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 4390 Southwest	DEN 19:29	BUR 21:02	25%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON