Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1560 at 05:24 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 1560 DEN 05:24 → BWI 10:52 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1262 DEN 17:07 → BWI 22:35 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1560 Southwest	DEN 05:24	BWI 10:52	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1751 Southwest	DEN 08:37	BWI 14:05	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4120 Southwest	DEN 00:32	BWI 05:55	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1362 United Flight history →	DEN 09:46	BWI 15:17	11%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 363 United	DEN 14:09	BWI 19:30	17%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 1262 Southwest	DEN 17:07	BWI 22:35	27%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON