Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1566 at 08:52 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 1566 DEN 08:52 → BZN 10:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4675 DEN 19:49 → BZN 21:35 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1566 Southwest	DEN 08:52	BZN 10:45	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
OO 4754 SkyWest	DEN 07:56	BZN 10:01	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3263 Southwest	DEN 13:15	BZN 14:58	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 513 United Flight history →	DEN 13:30	BZN 15:18	12%	5%	0.6%	85%
UA 741 United Flight history →	DEN 11:46	BZN 13:38	13%	4%	0.6%	82%
UA 1347 United Flight history →	DEN 19:25	BZN 21:14	15%	6%	0.6%	80%
WN 4675 Southwest	DEN 19:49	BZN 21:35	17%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON