Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1003 at 09:50 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1003 United Flight history →	DEN 09:50	CHS 15:14	13%	4%	0.7%	85%
WN 1719 Southwest	DEN 15:22	CHS 20:45	24%	5%	2.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 00:40 → ATL 05:42DL 302	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 08:20 → CHS 09:34DL 3091	6h 54m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00DL 1129	3h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 12:38 → CHS 16:28DL 2463	8h 28m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 14:40 → CHS 15:53DL 1381	8h 08m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	DEN 07:15 → ATL 12:11DL 431	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 16:00 → CHS 17:19DL 2174	8h 04m	99%	83%
United Details →	DEN 00:12 → EWR 05:42UA 1745	1h 03m Newark	EWR 06:45 → CHS 08:51UA 2355	6h 39m	92%	82%
United Details →	DEN 08:00 → IAD 13:26UA 1101	3h 49m Dulles	IAD 17:15 → CHS 19:05UA 6258 · flown by Mesa	9h 05m	100%	81%
United Details →	DEN 05:00 → IAH 08:32UA 320	3h 43m Houston	IAH 12:15 → CHS 16:02UA 6295 · flown by Mesa	9h 02m	100%	79%
United Details →	DEN 06:00 → ORD 09:42UA 1377	1h 09m Chicago	ORD 10:51 → CHS 14:09UA 2631	6h 09m	95%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DEN 13:21 → CLT 18:40AA 1662	1h 20m Charlotte	CLT 20:00 → CHS 21:07AA 3064	5h 46m	70%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON