Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2742 at 10:12 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 2742 DEN 10:12 → CID 13:12 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2324 DEN 17:37 → CID 20:39 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2742 United	DEN 10:12	CID 13:12	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 3752 United	DEN 15:05	CID 18:05	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 5677 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:55	CID 17:01	21%	5%	0.6%	86%
UA 2324 United Flight history →	DEN 17:37	CID 20:39	28%	5%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON