Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 619 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 619 DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 1425 DEN 17:07 → CLE 22:04 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 619 United Flight history →	DEN 09:40	CLE 14:36	11%	2%	0.5%	97%
UA 2476 United Flight history →	DEN 13:55	CLE 18:53	15%	4%	0.5%	90%
WN 2656 Southwest	DEN 11:02	CLE 15:54	18%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1790 United Flight history →	DEN 17:40	CLE 22:41	21%	6%	0.5%	75%
WN 1425 Southwest	DEN 17:07	CLE 22:04	31%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON