Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 573 at 06:41 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 573 DEN 06:41 → CLT 12:04 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 1662 DEN 13:21 → CLT 18:40 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 573 American Flight history →	DEN 06:41	CLT 12:04	8%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 2231 United	DEN 09:53	CLT 15:17	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 616 United Flight history →	DEN 17:45	CLT 23:08	27%	8%	0.7%	71%
AA 1283 American Flight history →	DEN 15:38	CLT 20:57	32%	8%	0.7%	75%
AA 3299 American Flight history →	DEN 11:00	CLT 16:18	32%	6%	1.2%	93%worse than usual
AA 1662 American Flight history →	DEN 13:21	CLT 18:40	33%	6%	0.7%	89%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON