Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1016 at 08:47 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1016 DEN 08:47 → COS 09:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4402 DEN 19:29 → COS 20:15 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1016 Southwest	DEN 08:47	COS 09:40	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 5246 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	COS 08:41	9%	4%	0.6%	85%
OO 306 SkyWest	DEN 21:02	COS 21:51	13%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 8636 Southwest	DEN 12:47	COS 13:40	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 5306 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 10:07	COS 10:56	16%	5%	0.6%	83%
UA 5308 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 16:55	COS 17:52	17%	8%	0.6%	66%
UA 5546 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 15:35	COS 16:32	17%	7%	0.6%	81%
UA 738 United	DEN 11:38	COS 12:21	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3583 Southwest	DEN 16:02	COS 16:55	19%	4%	0.5%	no record
OO 4637 SkyWest	DEN 16:34	COS 17:23	20%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 4775 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:30	COS 14:27	20%	7%	0.6%	73%
UA 4793 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:05	COS 20:01	21%	7%	0.6%	74%
UA 5861 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:55	COS 18:54	22%	8%	0.6%	68%
UA 5669 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:44	COS 20:33	24%	7%	0.6%	84%
WN 4402 Southwest	DEN 19:29	COS 20:15	26%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON