Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1978 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 1978 DEN 09:40 → CVG 14:28 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest G4 4763 DEN 22:50 → CVG 03:38 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1978 United Flight history →	DEN 09:40	CVG 14:28	10%	3%	0.6%	93%
UA 1615 United Flight history →	DEN 17:40	CVG 22:28	18%	7%	0.6%	76%
F9 3286 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 11:21	CVG 16:13	19%	5%	0.7%	82%
WN 290 Southwest	DEN 12:32	CVG 17:20	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
G4 4763 Allegiant	DEN 22:50	CVG 03:38	23%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON