Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1442 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 1442 DEN 05:25 → DAL 08:24 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest WN 2001 DEN 18:52 → DAL 21:55 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1442 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 05:25	DAL 08:24	3%	1%	0.9%	82%
WN 875 Southwest	DEN 07:47	DAL 10:50	5%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 1408 Southwest	DEN 11:02	DAL 14:05	16%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2571 Southwest	DEN 16:22	DAL 19:25	22%	5%	1.1%	no record
WN 2790 Southwest	DEN 14:38	DAL 17:33	23%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 2001 Southwest	DEN 18:52	DAL 21:55	29%	8%	4.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON