tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 2635 at 18:03, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2635 United DEN 18:03 DAY 22:37 21% 8% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dayton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dayton is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DEN 00:40 → ATL 05:42DL 302 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 09:00 → DAY 10:30DL 3108 7h 50m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → DAY 15:29DL 2763 7h 44m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → DEN 11:45 → ATL 16:49DL 346 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 20:10 → DAY 21:44DL 3167 7h 59m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → DEN 11:00 → CLT 16:18AA 3299 2h 37m Charlotte CLT 18:55 → DAY 20:37AA 5435 · flown by PSA 7h 37m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → DEN 00:05 → IAD 05:28UA 1924 2h 47m Dulles IAD 08:15 → DAY 09:48UA 4188 · flown by GoJet 7h 43m 100% 78%
AmericanDetails → DEN 07:27 → DFW 10:30AA 852 3h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:19 → DAY 17:57AA 5517 · flown by PSA 8h 30m 95% 77%
AmericanDetails → DEN 10:25 → DFW 13:26AA 1756 3h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:16 → DAY 20:48AA 5609 · flown by PSA 8h 23m 95% 74%
AmericanDetails → DEN 15:25 → DFW 18:35AA 420 1h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:13 → DAY 23:44AA 5245 · flown by PSA 6h 19m 83% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DEN 13:05 → PHL 19:00AA 2491 49m Philadelphia PHL 19:49 → DAY 22:04AA 5064 · flown by PSA 6h 59m 67% 59%
AmericanDetails → DEN 10:25 → DFW 13:26AA 1756 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:19 → DAY 17:57AA 5517 · flown by PSA 5h 32m 71% 58%
UnitedDetails → DEN 13:25 → ORD 17:05UA 617 46m Chicago ORD 17:51 → DAY 20:22UA 4484 · flown by GoJet 4h 57m 56% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON