Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2612 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 2612 DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1832 DEN 16:56 → DFW 19:58 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2612 American Flight history →	DEN 05:00	DFW 08:05	7%	3%	1.1%	90%
AA 3285 American Flight history →	DEN 06:26	DFW 09:30	8%	4%	1.0%	90%
UA 1350 United Flight history →	DEN 09:37	DFW 12:40	13%	6%	0.6%	85%
AA 852 American Flight history →	DEN 07:27	DFW 10:30	17%	5%	0.9%	81%
F9 3366 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:09	DFW 13:19	17%	5%	0.8%	78%
AA 1523 American Flight history →	DEN 09:04	DFW 12:07	19%	6%	1.0%	82%
F9 2632 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 21:25	DFW 00:29	20%	10%	1.9%	68%
UA 2239 United Flight history →	DEN 20:53	DFW 23:59	23%	13%	1.1%	69%
UA 578 United Flight history →	DEN 13:55	DFW 17:01	23%	11%	0.6%	76%
AA 1756 American Flight history →	DEN 10:25	DFW 13:26	24%	7%	1.0%	69%
F9 4464 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:13	DFW 19:26	26%	10%	1.0%	72%
AA 2359 American Flight history →	DEN 12:39	DFW 15:46	27%	11%	1.1%	64%
UA 1565 United Flight history →	DEN 18:50	DFW 21:56	31%	20%	2.4%	69%
AA 420 American Flight history →	DEN 15:25	DFW 18:35	32%	15%	1.8%	69%
AA 1832 American Flight history →	DEN 16:56	DFW 19:58	39%	15%	2.6%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON