Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1311 at 13:30 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 1311 DEN 13:30 → DSM 16:15 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 4597 DEN 17:55 → DSM 20:38 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1311 United Flight history →	DEN 13:30	DSM 16:15	14%	4%	0.6%	89%
WN 1838 Southwest	DEN 11:07	DSM 13:50	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1213 United	DEN 21:00	DSM 23:47	17%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 549 United Flight history →	DEN 17:40	DSM 20:30	22%	8%	0.6%	77%
WN 4597 Southwest	DEN 17:55	DSM 20:38	32%	7%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON