Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1096 at 00:59 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 1096 DEN 00:59 → DTW 05:48 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 2507 DEN 17:32 → DTW 22:22 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1096 Delta Flight history →	DEN 00:59	DTW 05:48	9%	3%	0.4%	91%
UA 1915 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	DTW 14:26	12%	3%	0.5%	96%
DL 1113 Delta	DEN 10:54	DTW 15:43	13%	4%	0.4%	no record
DL 1648 Delta Flight history →	DEN 15:00	DTW 19:52	14%	6%	0.4%	83%
F9 3566 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 12:13	DTW 17:16	15%	4%	0.7%	91%
DL 1745 Delta Flight history →	DEN 11:33	DTW 16:19	17%	4%	0.4%	90%
WN 675 Southwest	DEN 11:37	DTW 16:22	23%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1220 United Flight history →	DEN 17:47	DTW 22:43	24%	7%	0.6%	70%
WN 2507 Southwest	DEN 17:32	DTW 22:22	33%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON