Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3993 at 09:44 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 3993 DEN 09:44 → ELP 11:28 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1586 DEN 17:27 → ELP 19:21 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3993 Southwest	DEN 09:44	ELP 11:28	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2128 United	DEN 11:36	ELP 13:31	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 2261 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:43	ELP 18:48	19%	6%	0.6%	80%
UA 333 United Flight history →	DEN 19:20	ELP 21:11	27%	6%	0.6%	66%
WN 1586 Southwest	DEN 17:27	ELP 19:21	27%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON