Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2799 at 08:52 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 2799 DEN 08:52 → EUG 10:44 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1303 DEN 19:35 → EUG 21:21 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2799 Southwest	DEN 08:52	EUG 10:44	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 318 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	EUG 12:57	19%	6%	0.6%	73%
AS 9673 Alaska	DEN 22:14	EUG 23:50	20%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 4411 Southwest	DEN 19:29	EUG 21:15	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1303 United Flight history →	DEN 19:35	EUG 21:21	24%	6%	0.7%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON