Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2093 at 00:12 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 2093 DEN 00:12 → FLL 05:48 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2019 DEN 17:37 → FLL 23:30 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2093 United	DEN 00:12	FLL 05:48	13%	5%	2.0%	no record
UA 1214 United	DEN 09:52	FLL 15:57	17%	6%	1.4%	no record
UA 1374 United Flight history →	DEN 17:45	FLL 23:51	17%	6%	1.1%	77%
UA 1384 United Flight history →	DEN 13:53	FLL 19:44	20%	8%	1.0%	67%
WN 2019 Southwest	DEN 17:37	FLL 23:30	27%	6%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON