Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 14–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 309 DEN 20:55 → FSD 23:39 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 645 DEN 17:28 → FSD 20:08 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 309 SkyWest	DEN 20:55	FSD 23:39	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 5378 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:40	FSD 16:23	14%	6%	0.5%	86%
UA 4759 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:35	FSD 12:13	14%	4%	0.5%	89%
UA 645 United Flight history →	DEN 17:28	FSD 20:08	21%	7%	0.6%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON