Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1591 at 08:47 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 1591 DEN 08:47 → GEG 10:21 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1592 DEN 19:38 → GEG 21:05 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1591 Southwest	DEN 08:47	GEG 10:21	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
OO 5859 SkyWest	DEN 14:00	GEG 15:42	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 295 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	GEG 12:37	15%	5%	0.6%	83%
UA 778 United Flight history →	DEN 19:05	GEG 20:30	19%	6%	0.6%	71%
WN 1592 Southwest	DEN 19:38	GEG 21:05	20%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON