Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 10–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 6041 DEN 07:45 → GJT 09:06 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 431 DEN 19:25 → GJT 20:34 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 6041 SkyWest	DEN 07:45	GJT 09:06	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 5488 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:25	GJT 14:40	12%	4%	0.7%	86%
UA 1714 United Flight history →	DEN 11:24	GJT 12:31	12%	3%	0.6%	87%
OO 5491 SkyWest	DEN 20:45	GJT 21:51	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 498 SkyWest	DEN 16:26	GJT 17:48	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 431 United Flight history →	DEN 19:25	GJT 20:34	17%	5%	0.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON