tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via SFO, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 384 United Flight history → DEN 12:00 HNL 15:13 16% 6% 0.5% 82%
UA 1805 United Flight history → DEN 16:00 HNL 19:13 23% 9% 0.5% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 4 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00DL 1129 1h 10m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312 11h 43m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367 2h 27m San Francisco SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175 10h 28m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:45 → LAX 13:17UA 1013 3h 48m Los Angeles LAX 17:05 → HNL 19:44UA 1170 11h 59m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:20 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 3h 59m San Francisco SFO 17:03 → HNL 19:44UA 1509 12h 24m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 3h 51m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638 12h 18m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → DEN 08:00 → LAX 09:32UA 1638 3h 43m Los Angeles LAX 13:15 → HNL 16:17UA 1224 12h 17m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → DEN 08:16 → SLC 09:52DL 2544 1h 53m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 10h 03m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → DEN 07:13 → PHX 08:08AA 1404 2h 37m Phoenix PHX 10:45 → HNL 14:38AA 693 11h 25m 97% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON