Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1595 at 05:52 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 1595 DEN 05:52 → HOU 09:17 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1600 DEN 18:37 → HOU 22:02 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1595 Southwest	DEN 05:52	HOU 09:17	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2612 Southwest	DEN 07:37	HOU 11:01	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 5005 Southwest	DEN 08:57	HOU 12:22	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1707 Southwest	DEN 13:32	HOU 16:57	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1597 Southwest	DEN 11:02	HOU 14:27	20%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1600 Southwest	DEN 18:37	HOU 22:02	21%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON