Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1101 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 1101 DEN 08:00 → IAD 13:26 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 2408 DEN 18:00 → IAD 23:32 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1101 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	IAD 13:26	6%	2%	0.5%	94%
UA 1924 United Flight history →	DEN 00:05	IAD 05:09	6%	2%	0.5%	94%
UA 2087 United Flight history →	DEN 10:20	IAD 15:53	13%	3%	0.5%	81%
UA 2853 United Flight history →	DEN 12:26	IAD 17:58	14%	5%	0.5%	82%
UA 347 United Flight history →	DEN 13:53	IAD 19:22	15%	5%	0.5%	87%
UA 421 United Flight history →	DEN 15:40	IAD 21:11	17%	6%	0.5%	71%
UA 2408 United Flight history →	DEN 18:00	IAD 23:32	18%	6%	0.5%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON