Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 4755 at 21:05 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 4755 DEN 21:05 → ICT 23:40 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest WN 1614 DEN 17:52 → ICT 20:21 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4755 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 21:05	ICT 23:40	10%	4%	1.6%	80%
UA 5497 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:55	ICT 12:27	12%	4%	0.6%	91%
UA 5454 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:59	ICT 16:34	15%	6%	0.8%	85%
WN 4243 Southwest	DEN 11:07	ICT 13:36	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1788 United	DEN 17:47	ICT 20:21	22%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 1614 Southwest	DEN 17:52	ICT 20:21	27%	8%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON