Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 10–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5374 DEN 08:05 → IDA 09:50 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest OO 391 DEN 19:22 → IDA 21:06 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5374 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 08:05	IDA 09:50	10%	5%	0.5%	87%
OO 735 SkyWest	DEN 15:50	IDA 17:32	12%	7%	0.5%	no record
UA 8183 United	DEN 11:48	IDA 13:29	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 4722 SkyWest	DEN 13:46	IDA 15:40	12%	6%	0.5%	no record
OO 391 SkyWest	DEN 19:22	IDA 21:06	16%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON