Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2007 at 07:57 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 2007 DEN 07:57 → IND 12:29 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1624 DEN 17:22 → IND 21:54 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2007 Southwest	DEN 07:57	IND 12:29	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1522 United Flight history →	DEN 09:58	IND 14:35	12%	4%	0.5%	87%
WN 1622 Southwest	DEN 10:57	IND 15:29	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 2346 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:39	IND 15:17	18%	5%	0.6%	78%
WN 1623 Southwest	DEN 12:57	IND 17:24	20%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 1199 United Flight history →	DEN 17:53	IND 22:30	23%	7%	0.5%	76%
WN 1624 Southwest	DEN 17:22	IND 21:54	27%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON