Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via SFO, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1758 United Flight history →	DEN 12:15	KOA 15:37	15%	6%	0.5%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 4 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367	1h 17m San Francisco	SFO 08:10 → KOA 10:40UA 1721	9h 25m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	DEN 12:23 → LAX 13:50DL 2148	2h 54m Los Angeles	LAX 16:44 → KOA 19:17DL 311	10h 54m	98%	83%
United Details →	DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812	3h 38m San Francisco	SFO 18:47 → KOA 21:19UA 1723	11h 54m	98%	82%
American Details →	DEN 07:13 → PHX 08:08AA 1404	2h 32m Phoenix	PHX 10:40 → KOA 14:06AA 663	10h 53m	97%	76%
Alaska Details →	DEN 07:05 → SEA 08:51AS 317	1h 25m Seattle	SEA 10:16 → KOA 13:14AS 709	10h 09m	93%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON