Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1626 at 05:47 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 1626 DEN 05:47 → LAS 06:59 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1639 DEN 16:49 → LAS 17:44 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1626 Southwest	DEN 05:47	LAS 06:59	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1629 Southwest	DEN 07:27	LAS 08:39	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2046 Southwest	DEN 08:47	LAS 09:49	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 2316 United Flight history →	DEN 08:05	LAS 09:07	8%	2%	0.6%	94%
F9 2349 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 07:22	LAS 08:25	12%	4%	0.8%	74%
UA 526 United Flight history →	DEN 11:22	LAS 12:24	16%	6%	0.6%	83%
F9 4967 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 12:47	LAS 13:47	17%	6%	0.8%	72%
WN 883 Southwest	DEN 12:27	LAS 13:29	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 493 United Flight history →	DEN 13:30	LAS 14:38	18%	7%	0.6%	88%
F9 777 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:29	LAS 23:29	19%	8%	1.2%	74%
UA 2424 United	DEN 16:04	LAS 17:11	22%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 1638 Southwest	DEN 14:27	LAS 15:34	24%	5%	0.7%	no record
F9 1765 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 18:33	LAS 19:40	24%	14%	1.5%	77%
UA 655 United Flight history →	DEN 19:05	LAS 20:08	27%	14%	0.8%	70%
WN 1640 Southwest	DEN 19:44	LAS 20:39	28%	8%	0.8%	no record
WN 1639 Southwest	DEN 16:49	LAS 17:44	30%	11%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON